Ok, so Monsanto and BASF just announced that they have successfully isolated a naturally occurring gene that enables corn to better tolerate drought conditions. Hooray! Um, not quite. The impacts of drought are certainly incredibly destructive across the world and drought-resistant corn could certainly help many farmers in the developing world, but there are some big ifs to think about here.
First, both BASF and Monsanto are contributing $1.5 billion to the project. So drought-resistant corn needs to turn a profit well in excess of $3 billion. This will of course dictate some creative price structuring and probably isn’t going to help those farmers who are in most need of this trait.
Second, the press release notes that 10 to 13 million acres of farmland planted to corn in the US is prone to drought and that test plots achieved gains of 7 to 10 bushels per acre. So in a country that has historically overproduced corn we will now have somewhere between 70 and 130 million additional bushels of corn to subsidize and dispose.
Depending on how you cut the numbers it is pretty clear that we already produce more than enough calories per person across the world thus hunger is a problem of distribution and NOT production. One of the key tropes that biotech proponents repeat is that we need GM to feed the world. In the US this takes the form of seeing the US (and the Midwest in particular as the breadbasket of the world). But we already have more than enough calories, we just don’t distribute them properly. However, there is a perverse twist to this logic and the implications of believing it. If American crop yields do continue to increase and if subsidy policies do not change significantly, those parts of the world that are most likely to experience chronic hunger and food insecurity will be LESS secure.
How can this be you ask? Well, if there is an increase in the quantity of subsidized US grain with no comparable increase in demand (I’ll get to this later) the logical result is that those farmers who cannot produce grain crops as cheaply will be forced out of the market. The widely-documented long term effects of structural adjustment policies (SAPs) in Africa and other parts of the no-longer-developing world (sorry for the cynicism) has been to remove domestic subsidy programs, while US subsidy policies have remained in place of course. The other effect of SAPs has been to encourage farmers to produce for export market rather than for subsitence, forcing them to rely on market exchange for the food they need to survive. So, when the Monsanto-aided crop yields in the government subsidized US corn belt rise, African farmers (and many others) who are not subsidized and who are now dependent upon market exchange for food will be even more vulnerable to events like drought as any subsistence crops that they are able to plant will be their only non-exchange option for food. They will thus be in position to plead for “International” food aid, which of course is provided largely by the US, and which serves as an important component of crop subsidization. And thus the circle is complete. Biotech advocate’s claim that we need their enhanced products to feed the world will be made real but only if we follow their advise and accept their tropes about hunger, yields and the necessary course of action.
One possible alternative here is that demand for grain crops will increase, but the only likely sources for this increased demand are from biofuel systems and from grain-based meat producers, two industries which are coming under HEAVY criticism for their contribution to climate change; the very condition which purportedly requires drought-resistent crops in the first place! Ugh…